Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Forrest Smith The Facts Are Now Written in History
...When over 1 Million civillians have been slaughtered it's a hard number to ignore, is it not... |
That figure, based on bogus studies published in
The Lancet authored by antiwar academics and published by an antiwar editor, has thoroughly been debunked by Professor Michael Spagat, an economist from Royal Holloway College, University of London, and David Kane, Institute Fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard University.
Spagat contends the authors cherry-picked data to overestimate casualties. A good analogy would be to study the mortality rate of those who were at the World Trade Center on 9/11 and extrapolate the mortality rate for all of New York City based on what happened in those towers.
Kane contends that the authors miscalculated the confidence level. Had it been calculated correctly, there would be no basis to find a statistically significant increase in the Iraq civilian mortality rate.
A couple other things to note.
There were two studies. The first was released just before the 2004 U.S. presidential election with the claim of 100,000 civilian deaths in an attempt to sway the election results.
The second study was released in 2006 with the claim that 650,000 civilian deaths had occurred. To date, the authors refuse to release the underlying data so that the studies can be peer-reviewed. Yet Spagat and Kane were able to punch holes in the conclusions based on the published findings.
Your claim of 1,000,000 deaths? Can't wait to see the data that supports it.
BTW, you can't count the people who would have died of natural causes as an increase in the death rate. They'd have died of old age/disease/car accidents, etc. whether or not a war occurred. We're talking an increase in civilian deaths attributable to the war. Let's see the data.
-Mike