Alan,
You are essentially asking two questions:
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Is it right though to say making one change on a web page or letter will increase a response rate?
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and
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We all know long copy works fantastically well but on some sites it fails miserably. So does that also mean red headlines and other "tricks" might not perform on other targets?
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The answer to the first question is "well, it just depends". And the answer to the second question is "well, it just depends".
I think Yeo identified two very important variables here, which are timing and volume of traffic.
If your time is limited because the product or service has a short shelf-life, then clearly there isn't time to test and one has to go with one's best guess KNOWING WHAT ONE KNOWS ABOUT THAT MARKET. Also, if the volume of traffic is low, then clearly you cannot generate statistically significant data in which case making changes may not prove a whole lot.
But what I feel is the most important thing/variable to be aware of here is the culture of your market. There may not be a lot of science or stats involved with this. For example, my market and my clients' markets are professionals in a B2B selling scenario. In that scenario I "intuit" that glaring, red, long headlines will do more to alienate the market than to enthuse it to reading further. Quid pro quo, it is best to avoid screaming headlines in favour of something slightly more subtle, for the simple fact that whilst screaming headlines quite obviously work well when selling products to would-be internet marketers, they won't go down well with sophisticated corporate buyers - even if it can be proven that they have better pulling-power.
What I think is also worth bearing in mind is that at the end of the day, marketing is somewhat random. We can try to control certain variables to the best of our abilities, but in the end, we cannot know the appetite of every single potential customer/client or what words will persuade them best. We can only work within the "bell" of the bell-curve of people likely to buy from us/our clients and hope that we've said enough to present a case for the service or product at hand. We change it in one particular way, and suddenly that appeals more to this type of person, but alienates another.
I've heard it said that the offer is actually much more important than the copy, although I would add the caveat that the copy has got to be good enough to present the offer in an appealing way, and so maybe that is the thing to focus on. I certainly focus on that with my clients - I don't accept their versions of their offers at face value, because most of them are total pants.
Just my 2 pints of lager and a packet of crisps-worth.
AKA: there's such a thing as trying too hard.
Jane